The current health care debate has created much turmoil and division in the Democratic Party – to the delight of the Republican Party – as the fissure between moderate and liberal Democrats widens.  After much debate and some heated moments, the Senate Finance Committee has rejected two plans for a public option proposed in committee with both Republicans and moderate Democrats voting against the amendments.  And just today, the Congressional Budget’s Office released a report estimating that Senate Finance Committee Chair Max Baucus’s (D-MT) health care plan, a public option-less plan, will reduce the national deficit by $81 billion over a decade.  Now that a solid middle-of-the-road approach has emerged, is there any possibility for a public option?

The Committee killed Senator Jay Rockefeller’s (D-WV) plan 15-8, with five Democrats joining the Republicans, and Senator Charles Schumer’s (D- NY) plan 13-10, with three Democrats joining the Republicans.  It is quite clear that the most important bloc in the Senate is the moderate Democrats who are needed to push bills out of committees and to create a filibuster-proof vote.  These Democrats are hesitant against voting for a public option for many reasons.  Some are worried that a heavily loaded health care bill would plunge the government into further deficit.  Some are worried that the low federal reimbursement rates will hurt their state hospitals.  And some, like Baucus, believe that a plan that includes a public option will not pass in the Senate and will bring about the death of Obamacare. 

The Baucus plan can allay at least one of the above worries.  The plan is project to cost $774 billion over a decade but ultimately reduce the deficit.  Compared to the $1.2 trillion plan proposed by the House of Representatives this summer, the numbers look angelic.

But before Baucus starts celebrating, there is still a huge possibility that his plan will not garner enough support either.  Baucus’s plan includes the establishment of non-profit cooperatives, the absence of the aforementioned public option and mandatory coverage of employees by businesses, and many spending cuts and tax increases.  Many very liberal Democrats have denounced any health care plan without a public option – including Speaker of the House and the public option’s biggest fan Nancy Pelosi.  And of course, many Republicans will not vote for health care reform that expands the government’s role.  So while the Baucus plan will win the support of moderate Democrats and perhaps even some moderate Republicans like Olympia Snowe (R-ME), it will lose the support of very left-leaning Democrats.  In addition, the Senate Finance Committee seems to be one of the last holdouts.  The House has very strong backing for a public option thanks to their supermajority and a public option amendment has already passed in another senate committee.   

Thus, while the public option is ailing, it’s not even close to dead.